FanFolio turns the World Cup into a stock market where every national team has a price based on how far the market expects it to go. Group stage exits pay the least. Lifting the trophy pays the most.
The World Cup has two distinct phases that create different kinds of trading. In the group stage, every team plays three matches and the standings determine who advances. A surprise loss in the opener reprices a favorite immediately, and the third group match often has multiple permutations that move prices across the whole group.
Once the knockouts begin, it becomes single elimination and the dynamics shift. Each round survived increases a team's payout tier, so advancing from the quarterfinals to the semifinals is a concrete jump in value — not just sentiment.
During the group stage, the smart trades are often about spotting which teams the market has mispriced based on draw difficulty. A strong team in an easy group might already be priced to advance, while a dark horse in a tough group might be undervalued if it can steal a result.
In the knockouts, it becomes about matchup analysis and scarcity. As teams are eliminated, the survivors become more valuable. The market moves fast after each match, and the window to buy a quarterfinal winner before the price adjusts can be narrow.